Volkswagen (VWAGY) Inventory Evaluation

Fast Inventory Overview

Ticker: VWAGY

Supply: Yahoo Finance

Key Information

Business	Automible
Market Capitalization ($M)	$102,751
Worth to gross sales	0.4
Worth to Free Money Move	4.7
Dividend yield	4.1%
Gross sales ($M)	263,651
Free money circulation/share	$3.6
Fairness per share	$28.03
P/E	5.2

1. Govt Abstract

Volkswagen is the world’s second-largest automobile firm by income, behind solely Toyota. The Volkswagen Group consists of ten European manufacturers from 5 international locations: Volkswagen, Volkswagen Industrial Automobiles, Porsche, Lamborghini, Audi, Bentley, Ducati, CUPRA, SKODA, and SEAT.

Volkswagen is the kind of firm markets have hated for many years. Capital intensive, “outdated trade”, polluting, based mostly outdoors the US. Making automobiles has undoubtedly not been glamourous recently until you make electrical autos (EVs). The dominant narrative has been that legacy automakers are doomed to go the best way of the dodo birds, changed by Tesla and its numerous copycats.

You possibly can see a video of the meteoritic rise of Tesla’s market cap within the tweet right here. In 2021, it was as massive as that of the following 10 greatest automakers TOGETHER.

I believe that is about to alter, for the easy purpose that the main automakers are catching up and difficult Tesla’s domination of the EV (Electrical autos) market. Volkswagen is on the forefront of this shift and is ideally positioned to deliver inexpensive EVs to the market.

The group has the economic capability, monetary sources, expertise, and branding energy to handle efficiently the transition to electrical mobility.

The swap to electrical may also present VW with the proper event to modernize its company and monetary construction. So much has been achieved on this path already, as you will note on this report. VW has additionally invested closely in turning the economic large right into a tech firm, from software program to self-driving automobiles.

Lastly, the VW group may also profit from the deliberate Porsche IPO and has different prestigious manufacturers that they might spin off sooner or later.

None of those developments appear priced in at this level. Tesla skeptics have been overwhelmed down by years of failed shorts technique, so nobody appears to note that the world’s second-largest automobile producer goes all-in on electrical automobiles.

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2. Prolonged Abstract: Why Volkswagen?

The Electrification Problem

The transition to electrical autos is the largest problem the automobile trade has confronted in many years. Tesla has been constantly main the pack, making a transferring goalpost for legacy producers. VW is uniquely positioned to catch up and reveals early indicators of doing so. Rivals are centered on different applied sciences or ultra-low worth ranges.

Re-Studying Innovation

VW has constructed a brand new ground-up growth course of for constructing EVs, which it’s sharing throughout the Firm’s totally different manufacturers. This dramatically will increase the synergy between the group manufacturers, lowering waste on redundant R&D. VW can be embracing the way forward for automobiles as related units, with large progress on software program, devoted electronics {hardware}, and investments in self-driving expertise.

Porsche IPO, Dangers & Valuation

VW plans to promote 25% of its Porsche possession this fall. Half of the proceeds shall be used to finance electrification, half distributed as a particular dividend. The VW group’s manufacturers are prone to command a premium when buying and selling individually.

VW dangers are principally associated to precise and potential provide chain issues. A recession would clearly harm as effectively, however valuation and earnings appear consistent with the 10-year common and don’t mirror the highs of a cycle.

3. The Electrification Problem

One Battery To Rule Them All

If you’re following monetary markets, I doubt you could have missed the hordes of devoted Tesla buyers. Tesla’s worth has lately reached a degree the place it was value greater than the whole conventional automobile trade.

The image may be very totally different after we have a look at the variety of automobiles bought. With the trade churning out a complete of round 70 million models/yr in 2021, the 1 million manufacturing capability lately reached by Tesla appears quite a bit much less spectacular.

After all, Tesla’s market cap is based on the belief that conventional automakers won’t ever meet up with the EV market chief. So let’s have a look at the newest EV gross sales numbers. The picture under from September 2021 would point out that Tesla certainly nonetheless utterly dominates the trade.

I highlighted VW electrical automobiles. You possibly can see that moreover an ultra-low-cost “soapbox” automobile from China, VW was the second-best behind Tesla, however nonetheless far behind.

However that is outdated information. The ID.4 is shortly rising as a severe competitor, with gross sales up 65% in Q1 2022. At 30,300 models bought, the ID.4 is now above each different mannequin however Tesla fashions 3 and Y. You possibly can see a evaluation of the ID.4 on this article.

The ID.4 begins at $40,760 within the US, considerably cheaper than Tesla’s least expensive entry, the Mannequin 3, which begins at $48,440.

Extra importantly, the ID.4 was lower than a 3rd of the VW group sale of EVs. The VW group bought near 100,000 EVs in Q1 2022, unfold out between Audi e-Tron, Porsche Taycan, and so forth. Every of these is of equal high quality to Tesla’s luxurious fashions. It in all probability might have achieved even higher, however “VW provide of EV for the US market ran out“.

Altogether, The VW group EV gross sales in Q1 2022 are roughly 1/3 of Tesla’s gross sales. If market caps adopted EV gross sales quantity, VW needs to be valued at $276B, in comparison with the present $118B.

VW additionally delivered 1,800,000 conventional automobiles in Q1 2022, or x18 of its EV quantity. I might not base a VW valuation on Tesla, clearly an overvalued firm, however nonetheless, it put issues in perspective.

Is Tesla the Apple of Automakers?

If that you must bear in mind just one factor from this report, bear in mind this part. When finding out Tesla, the perfect parallel can be Apple. Fanatical supporters, excessive costs, top-level tech, and smooth or stunning design. And that’s alright. I believe that is the proper area of interest for Tesla, and judging by Apple’s historical past, it could possibly be a really worthwhile one.

If the smartphone market is an effective indication of the way forward for EVs, this implies a counterpart to the Apple technique. You could possibly as effectively determine and purchase the longer term Samsung, which barely outsells Apple in whole unit quantity.

The Apple/Tesla technique is a strong one. It’s also a limiting one. By tying a lot of the product and model to luxurious and id, it locks itself out of elements of the market. A low-cost iPhone wouldn’t be a “actual” iPhone. It appears the highway to a $25k Tesla is equally sluggish. The “cooler” cybertruck goes to reach earlier than the “boring” semi-truck (a mission lingering in Tesla limbo since 2019) or “simply low cost” fashions.

Volkswagen (whose title means “the folks’s automobile”) doesn’t have such an issue. It may well commercialize cheaper and mid-range fashions below the VW, Seat, and Skoda manufacturers. It sells sports activities automobiles below Porsche and luxurious fashions below Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, and Cupra. If it desires to, it even can enter the marketplace for electrical bikes with Ducati. It additionally gives electrical variations of its Scania vans, MAN buses, and VW business vans.

For an ideal illustration of how VW is creating informal autos that fill niches unfit for the Tesla model, we are able to have a look at the reimagined iconic VW van ID Buzz.

So if Tesla is the Apple of EVs, Volkswagen has the potential to turn out to be the Samsung of EVs.

It would doubtless be the grasp of the mid-price vary part for EVs, whereas additionally taking a sizeable chunk of all the opposite sectors, from low-cost to luxurious and sport. This needs to be helped by the arrival of a number of new merchandise, notably the ID.5, ID Buzz, and Lengthy-range Aero, but additionally the cheaper ID life.

The Different Rivals

The automotive trade is a slightly fragmented one, and I count on it to remain this manner. For instance, I count on not less than one of many Massive 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) to remain vital within the US market and be joined by Tesla on prime of that market.

Judging by this checklist of the most cost effective EVs, with Mazda, Kia, Nissan, and Hyundai, the low vary phase is prone to be managed by Japanese corporations. This leaves VW nearly alone within the worthwhile mid-range phase.

I additionally count on the Chinese language and Southeast Asian producers to take over the area of interest of the ultra-cheap market, under $15k-$20k EVs. In that phase, we may also discover Renault-Dacia with the Duster Spring. Their small batteries will confine them to city and suburban utilization.

The one competitor that might or ought to have been a severe menace to VW was Toyota. It had the vital mass, fame, and sources to duplicate VW and even beat it. As an alternative of competing head entrance on battery EVs, although, Toyota appears to consider in a concentrate on hybrids and even hydrogen. Relying on the velocity of the electrical transition, this would possibly show a uniquely insightful technique or a horrible blunder.

That is nonetheless the largest menace to VW sooner or later, in all probability rather more than Tesla. I encourage any investor in VW to pay shut consideration from 2025 onward to Toyota’s progress on solid-state batteries.

You’ll discover I didn’t point out different pure EV startups. It’s because after Nikola’s outright fraud, the closest contender, Ford-backed Rivian, is in freefall after failing to ramp up manufacturing. Merely put, making automobiles is a tricky enterprise, and there’s a purpose why there have been only a few new entrants within the markets within the final many years.

4. Re-Studying Innovation

Re-Mastering the Artwork of Automaking

By its personal admission, VW was too sluggish to react to the development of electrification. It’s now working additional time to right that mistake. Partly, its consideration was distracted by preventing a rearguard battle towards air pollution management on diesel automobiles. This led VW to falsify air pollution experiences in a scandal now often called the Dieselgate.

The scandal resulted in pricey fines and a number of other executives have been arrested or fired. It additionally pushed VW to embrace the EV revolution. The corporate was punished with $2.7B in damages however was additionally pressured to take a position $2B in clear emission infrastructures. You possibly can learn extra in regards to the flip to electrical autos from the corporate’s CEO on this interview.

VW is an skilled at making nice ICE (Inside Combustion Engine) autos. So it wanted a couple of years to discover ways to switch this experience into electrical engines. The talents have been already there for excellent steering, gearboxes, brakes, suspensions, and all the opposite elements that go into a contemporary automobile.

Till now, VW has primarily been a conglomerate of manufacturers. Every of the manufacturers had its personal designs, with restricted overlap. This led to a really advanced provide chain with, for instance, tons of of various gearboxes. The swap to electrical has turn out to be a chance to revamp ALL the VW group’s new automobiles round frequent core {hardware} and software program via the shared Scalable System Platform.

That is now dealt with by the newly fashioned Volkswagen part Group division. Administration appears assured that they will strike the high quality stability between preserving manufacturers uniqueness and customary designs:

“There are loads of similarities which we are able to leverage in scale — much more so on the software program aspect. In the event you drove an Audi or Porsche and Volkswagen at the moment, you’d in all probability have totally different {hardware} and software program for navigation, for local weather management, and even for the window lifter. That’s not mandatory. … Software program affords an enormous alternative for economies of scale, nonetheless permitting for model differentiation.

Now, a Porsche can stay a Porsche, even higher than at the moment. An Audi can stay an Audi, and Volkswagen will provide a broad vary of merchandise, however the fundamental software program stack may be very, very related. Software program is comparatively costly in automotive. Now it’s a one-time expenditure. … We expect that we’ve got a superb likelihood to additionally turn out to be very aggressive in software program if we construct a standard fundamental software program for all of the manufacturers. “

Embracing the Digital Revolution

Dieselgate was the shock VW wanted to show towards the longer term. Its innovation is targeted on 3 areas: Batteries, Software program, and Autonomous Driving

Batteries

VW is growing a hybrid resolution between full reliance on massive third events (CATL, Panasonic) and Tesla-style vertical integration. Its 2 most important companions are smaller battery producer NorthVolt and QuantumScape, a solid-state battery startup. It was contemplating an IPO for its battery division in 2021 however that appears to be on the again burner for now, with the Firm focusing as an alternative on the Porsche IPO (extra on that later).

VW can be investing closely in startups with invaluable expertise. For instance, a $400M funding in Group14, changing the normal graphite anode in lithium-ion batteries with a silicon-carbon materials, is boosting battery capability by 50%.

VW’s low-carbon profile can be helped by funding in new amenities, notably $10B in solar-powered factories in Spain for electrical automobiles and batteries.

The top aim for VW is to maintain the excessive acceleration efficiency of EVs whereas additionally having very lengthy vary and quick charging. All of those will in all probability be absolutely achievable solely when solid-state batteries are absolutely applied.

Software program and IT {hardware}

The CARIAD division is in control of growing a group-wide software program stack, for use by all VW manufacturers by 2025-2030. This may make all VW automobiles related units, following the footsteps of the On-the-Air updates by Tesla. It additionally handles the design of devoted {hardware} permitting the removing of as much as 1 kilometer of cable per automobile in comparison with earlier designs.

Autonomous Driving

VW is partnering with and investing in Argo AI to develop autonomous driving options. Autonomous driving is a contentious matter amongst tech fans. Some count on it yesterday, others see it at finest 15 years sooner or later. Contemplating the fixed delays of Tesla Full Self Driving, it appears a tricky nut to crack. You possibly can learn extra about Argo AI strategies in this interview with its CEO.

The experience pooling resolution MOIA and its devoted 6-seater are deliberate to enhance the autonomous driving options.

VW’s method is a cautious one, specializing in restricted autonomy in an outlined space, and increasing slowly from there. The cultural distinction between US startup tradition (the hare Tesla) and German industrialist (the tortoise VW) might be at play right here.

Our purpose is to have the ability to drive a automobile as Volkswagen. Now we have two areas: one is pushing robotaxi expertise with Argo. This includes shuttle providers, restricted areas, comparatively sluggish speeds — they’re sometimes ODD, which is discovered and programmed. Then it goes space by space and metropolis by metropolis. The opposite method we’re pushing is personal mobility: we’ve got the Audi workforce and CARIAD workforce engaged on that as a result of we expect that autonomous driving is not going to solely cowl this space of robotaxis, but additionally personal automobiles. Step-by-step: first we sort out driving at stage three or stage 4 on open highways — German autobahns — after which we get into extra advanced areas.

The Verge

5. Porsche IPO, Dangers & Valuation

Porsche AG IPO

A aspect discover: I’m talking of Porsche AG, the corporate manufacturing and promoting the Porsche automobiles. Don’t confuse this with one other firm, Porsche SE. Porsche SE is the holding of the Porsche household, which owns a big a part of VW, which in flip owns Porsche AG, the automobile firm. Fairly complicated I do know. Welcome to German company constructions.

VW acquired Porsche AG in 2012 and is planning the sale of 25% of the Firm this fall. Porsche AG has lately proven an important gross revenue margin of 18.6%. The supposed pricing of the IPO isn’t but clear. For instance, Mercedes, BMW, and VW commerce at 5-6x earnings; Ferrari at 40x earnings. So the a number of on Porsche earnings shall be a significant component. The concept behind the IPO is to let Porsche AG commerce at luxurious/supercar multiples, as an alternative of “boring” massive automaker multiples.

At a center floor P/E between Ferrari and German automaker, this may give Porsche AG a valuation of $84B. Even at half of that, a $42B can be a major a part of VW’s $102B present valuation. Loads of debate exists about VW’s means to raise its present “conglomerate low cost”. The second a part of this text gives extra data on this subject and can provide help to kind your individual opinion.

Half of the proceedings of the IPO shall be distributed to VW shareholders, and the remainder utilized to advancing VW’s electrification plans.

Different Manufacturers?

No plans have been introduced for the same IPO for the opposite luxurious model within the VW portfolio. Nonetheless, if the Porsche IPO is a hit, I might simply see Lamborghini, Audi, Bentley and even Ducati obtain the identical “25% bought in an IPO” remedy. This might assist worth discovery for these manufacturers/corporations, whereas nonetheless sustaining VW’s whole management over the manufacturers.

This isn’t as far-fetched as you may assume. Final yr, VW acquired a $7.5B provide for Lamborghini for instance. VW refused the provide.

Dangers

VW’s plans for electrification are the principle attraction to the inventory. Whichever of the highest 5 legacy automakers will handle the electrical transition will reap excellent rewards. Nonetheless, the trade is going through fairly a couple of headwinds:

Recession Threat

After one of many longest bull markets in historical past, rising charges, inflation, and conflict in Europe have all contributed to an elevated danger of a worldwide recession. The automotive trade is notoriously cyclical. All of the latest excessive earnings of VW and its rivals needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. We is likely to be on the highs of the financial cycle, and gross sales within the subsequent few years would possibly prove decrease than hoped.

Power Prices

VW is a German firm, and exploding power prices in Europe are an actual concern. The corporate is producing outdoors of Europe as effectively, however this could nonetheless harm its residence market disproportionately. If Russian gasoline stops flowing fully due to the Ukraine conflict or sanctions, this may doubtless trigger exploding costs for energy-intensive supplies like metal and batteries.

Provide Chain Disruption

This one is much less a possible danger as an ongoing concern. It additionally applies to most VW rivals. Chip shortages have plagued automakers for two years now. The latest wave of Chinese language lockdowns isn’t going to assist enhance the availability chain both.

On prime of that, an inexpensive however important part, a wiring harness, was principally equipped from Ukraine.

Provide chain points restrict manufacturing, and output ranges are prone to be disappointing in 2022. I count on VW to deal with it higher than its smaller rivals, however this would possibly nonetheless harm gross sales quantity.

Lastly, some provide points would possibly emerge in the long term. The provision of lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel is likely to be too quick to cowl all of the batteries automakers are planning to construct. New mines would possibly take 10 years to get operational, so this can be a severe danger. In that respect, VW would possibly make a superb pair in a portfolio with the miner Rio Tinto (coated in a earlier report a couple of months in the past). The rising prices of VW can be Rio Tinto’s earnings, lowering the general danger of the portfolio.

Valuation

An funding in VW is a guess that the corporate emerges on prime of the electrification development, or not less than as a significant participant. Because of Toyota’s concentrate on hybrid and different fuels like hydrogen, I believe that is doubtless. The persistent delays in an inexpensive Tesla automobile, construct high quality points, and branding points, make Tesla at most an equal, however not the domineering drive folks assume it’s. I believe the latest ID.5 gross sales quantity displays this modification in shopper notion on the subject of EVs.

With a P/E of 5.3 and a worth to free money circulation of 4.3, it might be robust to argue that VW is overvalued. My most important concern can be for this coming from abnormally excessive earnings or revenues in the previous few years.

Wanting on the previous 10 years of income, web earnings, and revenue margin, I don’t see something out of line. Solely drops in 2016 (DieselGate) and 2020 (Covid) break the development. VW is a really regular and secure firm. I’m additionally happy to see that web earnings is secure even with the large funding in electrification.

This isn’t an organization that may see a 10x rise in worth. However it offers a small dividend and is likely to be rather more secure than different overvalued parts of the market. An organization with a significant concentrate on software program, electrification, and self-driving can be providing the low valuation of an growing older industrial large.

As we transfer to bear market territory, will market notion change from in search of dangerous hypergrowth to stability. You could possibly argue that it’s already occurring. If it does, VW inventory shall be there to capitalize on it. The Porsche AG IPO is one other potential catalyst, with the particular dividends seemingly not priced in.

For my part, if you happen to’re contemplating including an organization like VW to a portfolio, the principle focus needs to be on offering much less volatility to the portfolio whereas retaining the potential for first rate returns. Dividends and secure web earnings ought to present that, given the low multiples. Wanting a brutal worldwide recession, VW ought to present first rate returns, with an opportunity of a inventory worth surge pushed by optimistic EV gross sales and manufacturing figures or a profitable Porsche IPO.

The chance with these outdated industrial giants is the likelihood that they are going to be caught unaware of a expertise shift. You don’t wish to find yourself proudly owning the following Kodak all the best way to zero. Contemplating the efforts VW has put into modernizing its line and innovation, I’m assured they’ll profit from the EV development as an alternative of being harmed by it.

6. Conclusion

Volkswagen is the kind of funding that may in all probability by no means present the best returns in a portfolio. It’s a safer, extra mature sort of firm, lowering general volatility. I might not essentially have seemed deeper if it was not promoting at a slightly low cost worth.

On prime of the value, I’m appreciative of the technique. The corporate didn’t rush into electrification, however when it determined to do the swap, it did it proper. The product performances in mileage, high quality, and worth present a stage of engineering equal or superior to Telsa, the market chief. The one possibly lagging half, software program, is catching up at a wide ranging velocity.

Creating the ID.4 and ID.5 was an enormous endeavor in design, battery expertise, electrical engine, and particular elements like gearboxes. This EV experience acquired in mid-price automobiles can now be introduced shortly to all worth ranges, in addition to business autos, vans, buses, and even bikes.

I count on VW scaling up electrical autos will catch most observers without warning. The EV market acquired used to seeing the opening of a brand new Tesla Manufacturing unit on a brand new continent as massive information. With corporations of the dimensions of VW coming into the market aggressively, this shall be a standard incidence.

VW may also be capable of draw from its virtually 2 million conventional automobiles per yr gross sales to finance the transition. Its “legacy” operations additionally give it entry to a really deep pool of proficient engineers, designers, researchers, designers, testers, and so forth, whose expertise can comparatively simply be repurposed for EV fashions. The identical outdated true for model energy, PR contacts, and gross sales networks.

The flexibility to nonetheless make cash for ICE (Inside Combustion Engine) automobiles whereas turning to EVs appears particularly helpful for me. If the transition to EVs seems slower than anticipated, or uncooked minerals for batteries are too uncommon or costly, VW can merely sluggish issues down somewhat and maintain being profitable promoting the automobiles that made the enterprise sturdy for many years.

Lastly, the wealthy panel of manufacturers within the VW group could possibly be a supply of hidden worth. Luxurious or sports activities model tends to commerce at a premium. After Porsche, VW might progressively contemplate IPOs for Lamborghini, Bentley, Audi, and Ducati. I think that the elements are value greater than the market worth for the entire group collectively.

Utilizing the Porsche IPO as a template, VW preserving 75% possession would permit simply sufficient worth discovery, whereas preserving the model safely at residence. They may all profit from the Group R&D and customary base structure for the transition to EV. That is one thing impartial supercar corporations like Ferrari couldn’t afford with out turning into over-reliant on third-party suppliers.

Lastly, self-driving options include loads of choices. I think that even when Argo AI seems to not be the perfect technical resolution, its strategies will appease regulators higher than Teslas. Nobody desires 2-tons of metallic driving round by itself with out sufficient knowledge and suggestions to make sure it’s secure.

So I count on the adoption of self-driving automobiles shall be sluggish for regulatory causes regardless of how good the tech is. It would solely be adopted on highways and well-known routes at first (like between airports for instance) and broaden from there. A fame for sluggish and regular company strategies appears extra applicable than the considerably reckless and brash fashion of an Elon Musk.