After a uneven interval between the June Fed low and the current Fed assembly, we lastly acquired a market resolving to the upside. Whereas everybody has flipped to bullish, with Apple, Amazon and Microsoft pushing the indexes up, let’s examine our work.
We have to take a look at a few bullish information factors. Initially, the Nasdaq 100 took out the earlier month’s excessive. That is fairly bullish.
On the every day chart, now we have some necessary ranges exhibiting up, with a sequence of upper highs and better lows. Some necessary ranges sit beneath us and above us. We took out the 4-week ceiling round 12200 in July after the Choices expiration on Friday July fifteenth was behind us. Additionally discover the July 1 low.
We’ve rallied considerably for the month up 12.73%, which is an enormous month. Good turning level. On the higher aspect (resistance), we’re testing the excessive of June. We’re additionally testing the 100-period shifting common.
After we widen this chart out, now we have retraced to the neckline of the Head/Shoulders high. It is a crucial technical stage to respect. I may also level out that the PPO has rolled over across the 2% stage for the final two years, which suggests we may be close to the utmost momentum increased. Will we roll over all of a sudden now that earnings are behind us, or does market momentum keep elevated and hold working??
That is the second week of upper highs for the inventory market, and that claims the momentum development is up. That could be very bullish. Nonetheless, we did see the identical factor on the finish of March.
I do wish to level out one factor that means watching the worth motion very intently. The purple arrows present the market reversing close to the primary of the month, sending markets decrease. The 2 black arrows present the markets reversing increased close to the start of the month.
All that’s to say the market is working its method increased. Nonetheless, do not be complacent with a downtrending 200-day shifting common.
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Greg Schnell, CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities evaluation. He’s additionally the co-author of Inventory Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based mostly in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He’s an lively member of each the CMT Affiliation and the Worldwide Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
