Monday, November 21, 2022
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Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, chance of invasion not priced in – Deep Worth Investments Weblog

I’ve determined to promote up on most of my Russian / Ukranian shares.


I’m holding on to FEES (Russian Electrical energy grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the ache on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout information introduced immediately implies *doubtlessly* a really excessive yield.

I’m more and more involved there can be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up appears lengthy/ sustained for a ‘coaching train’. In the event that they go dwelling with out doing something Putin will look weak.

I additionally notice final yr their western district held intensive coaching workout routines as nicely.

He can be particularly cautious of speak of Ukraine becoming a member of Nato, in Russian phrases that is equal to Canada becoming a member of the Warsaw pact – one thing that may’t be allowed to occur!

To me, army motion isn’t within the RUB/USD change charge and isn’t within the worth of shares. So till the mists clear I’ll get out and await readability. There aren’t prone to be any main optimistic catalysts quickly, so at worst I miss a number of % of acquire over the following month or two while managing my threat. I could even have the ability to snatch a fast, small profit from this, although its actually being finished for threat minimisation.

Onerous to know the way to name it – I initially considered this as western scaremongering. This occurs, we acquired many alarmist headlines when Russia began sending bombers in the direction of UK airspace. What was by no means stated was that NATO by no means stopped testing Russia’s air response (however this will get no press).



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